God's Imitator

Yang Yuting continued explaining:

”As long as everyone accepts that ’choosing either one makes no difference,’ there’s a high probability they’ll let their guard down.

”It’s like when drawing lots—if the rules are absolutely fair and the host and other players drawing lots have no idea which is the better lot, then everyone won’t consider all these complications and will follow their instinctive reactions more.

”An option closer to oneself is, first, more convenient, and second, gives a subconscious sense of closeness and security.

”When not overthinking, there’s a higher probability of choosing this way.

”So I put ’100,000’ in my right hand, making it more likely for Dai Yifan to choose it.

”And after choosing it, he would definitely switch.

”Although in principle, choosing either one makes no difference, different players have different risk preferences and tolerance.

”Lu Xinyi’s risk preference and tolerance are far higher than ordinary players.

”So when ordinary players play this game with her, they’ll have enormous psychological pressure.”They can’t help but worry about the situation where Lu Xinyi takes 900,000 and they bear 900,000 in debt with certain death.

”So facing such huge risk, ’switching slips’ becomes a stable strategy that can effectively reduce losses.

”Not switching might result in bearing 900,000 debt at most, while switching would only result in bearing 90,000 debt at most, and there’s even a possibility of gaining 900,000 returns.

”In the previous problem, Zheng Jie used a similar method to calculate expectations, and everyone quickly realized there was a problem.

”But after slightly changing the environment and opponent, ordinary players will still subconsciously use this thinking to consider problems.”

Zheng Jie frowned, ”But even knowing this, there’s no way to consider specific strategies, right?”

Yang Yuting shook her head, ”No, if you can think this through clearly, then when you draw ’100,000,’ you should immediately make a decision: don’t switch.

”Because for this problem, you need to think from Lu Xinyi’s perspective.

”First, Lu Xinyi’s impression is indeed a high-risk preference player, but can her high-risk preference really bear the level of risk like ’900,000 in debt’?

”Clearly, she doesn’t have that much visa time herself. Even if she did, would she gamble her life in such a simple way in front of a ’player who prefers stable decisions’?

”Because ’players who prefer stable decisions’ will most likely choose to switch, as we’ve already analyzed.

”Lu Xinyi indeed doesn’t mind taking risks, but the prerequisite must be excess returns far exceeding the risk. But in this game, risk and returns are roughly equal, and losing the gamble would most likely mean death.

”Lu Xinyi is just a risk-preference type player, not a mindless gambler. She most likely values her life more than you do.

”So the number ’1,000,000’ is just you scaring yourself. It’s almost impossible to appear.

”Second, no matter what number you draw, you must consider the possibility that ’this is what Lu Xinyi deliberately let you draw.’

”Considering all this comprehensively, you might see through her intention: she deliberately gives you 100,000, creates the illusion that ’there might be 1,000,000,’ and tricks you into switching slips.

”If it’s a master like Lu Xinyi, throughout the entire process, there might also be hints or performances through actions, words, or expressions—all to ensure this plan is implemented more smoothly.

”So your best choice is to withstand the psychological pressure of ’possibly losing 900,000’ and persist in not switching.

”Then you win and can net 90,000 minutes of visa time.”

Everyone was seriously pondering this, as if imagining the scene of actually beating Lu Xinyi.

Of course, no strategy is 100% successful. Those so-called strong players don’t always win—they can also fail.

But the biggest difference between them and weaker players is that they calculate the choice with the highest chance of winning based on game rules and opponent situations, plan around this choice, and then use various details and misdirection to make the opponent cooperate with their deception, thus establishing greater odds of winning.

It must be said that Yang Yuting’s simulation really was like a decision that ’Lu Xinyi-type players’ would make.

And Yang Yuting’s breakdown wasn’t ’I predicted your prediction’ type of infinite regress, but rather comprehensively analyzing such players’ thinking, predicting their strategies, and countering them.

If players like Zheng Jie really encountered Lu Xinyi, once they couldn’t see through Lu Xinyi’s thinking patterns and deception, there would be a high probability of being fooled.

But conversely, if they could see through Lu Xinyi’s thinking, then players like Zheng Jie could also actively disguise themselves, show weakness, cooperate with the opponent’s deception, and suddenly make unexpected actions at the end, thus winning the game.

Yang Yuting added, ”Of course, if you aspire to become a player like Lu Xinyi, then you can also try to actively use this strategy to deceive people when you’re the ’defender.’

”However, how to make the opponent believe you’re a ’Lu Xinyi-type player’ is the most difficult step in this process.

”If ordinary players’ bluffs fail, it might have serious adverse effects. This point still needs attention.

”Alright, now for the final gameplay.”

This time, Yang Yuting didn’t make slips herself but took out two pieces of paper.

”Now, I’m going to select two players to compete.

”You two will make your own slips and write numbers on them.

”The specific rules are as follows:

”The defender must make 5 different slips. Any one of these five slips must satisfy ’at least one of the other 4 slips is 10 times or 1/10 of it.’

”Considering this is practice, let’s simplify the rules a bit to avoid numbers like 9,000 and 90,000, or 999 and 9,990. Only whole numbers like 1, 10, 100, 10,000, and 100,000 are allowed.

”After writing, you each take turns as defender and attacker and play once with the other.

”Because the number of slips has increased, the attacker can draw twice in total.

”After each draw, you can choose whether to switch.

”If switching, you must return the previous slip and draw another, and the returned slip cannot be chosen again. If not switching, you keep it yourself.

”After the game ends, the total difference in returns between both sides is still calculated.

”For example, if a player has a net return of 9,000 as defender and a net return of -3,000 as attacker, then the final net return is 6,000, and they win ultimately.

”However, due to the ’net return’ issue, to prevent both sides from infinite regressing and writing numbers like ’10 million’ or even ’1 billion,’ we limit the highest number on slips to 100,000, and at most only one slip can have this number written on it.

”Those are the rules. Does anyone want to try?

”This time, let’s first select two players to do a demonstration. If everyone is interested afterward and wants to try more possibilities, you can also play privately.”

Soon, Zheng Jie and Dai Yifan raised their hands, each taking a sheet of white paper as a demonstration.