African Entrepreneurship Record

Chapter 1041: Chapter 50: Economic Situation in 1904

Planned economy is like a checkpoint game. Clearing it is naturally exhilarating, but overly aggressive plans could drag East Africa into an abyss. As it stands, surpassing the U.S. and Germany is somewhat unrealistic for East Africa. However, striving to surpass a venerable country like the United Kingdom in the industrial realm is no longer a fantasy for East Africa.

As the world overlord, the United Kingdom is theoretically stronger than the United States and Germany. Economically, the United Kingdom indeed surpasses Germany at present, but a significant portion is attributed to its financial sector. In terms of industrial capacity, the United Kingdom is already no match for the U.S. and Germany. From an industrial standpoint, East Africa’s surpassing the UK mainland is not too challenging.

”By 1904, our annual cement production had exceeded three million tons, nearly doubling since the pre-First-Five-Year Plan period, significantly impacting our construction, transportation, water conservancy, and other sectors.”

The doubling of cement output was a major highlight during East Africa’s First Five-Year Plan. Do not underestimate East Africa’s cement capacity of three million tons. When India gained independence, its national cement annual production was only slightly over two million tons, and that was by the late 1940s.

This also reflects the infrastructure frenzy in East Africa during the early 20th century. Although the infrastructure scale in the decades of the 70s, 80s, and 90s in East Africa wasn’t small, most projects couldn’t fully utilize the cement output, or the cement production couldn’t meet the engineering demand.

Hence, East Africa’s infrastructure in various domains resulted in such scenarios: plentiful earthen, stone, or wooden structures in towns and villages, with roads mainly being gravel paths, and in water conservancy construction, natural river channel renovations rarely utilized cement materials.

The rapid development of East Africa’s cement industry began in the 90s, and the booming demand for urban, transportation, and water conservancy projects during the First Five-Year Plan further catalyzed the growth of the cement industry.

Similarly, the growth rate of basic building materials such as sand and stone, and timber is exceedingly astounding, although these materials are difficult to statistically account for manually. However, it is visually evident that East African sand and stone quarrying plants have increased, while forest areas have rapidly diminished.

Of course, the shrink of forest areas is also related to East Africa’s urban and agricultural development. Urban construction requires substantial land, and agricultural reclamation is even more significant. Compared to the timber needed for production, the devastation of urban and agricultural expansion is greater.

Nevertheless, Ernst shows no reaction to the sharp reduction in East Africa’s forest coverage. This is a necessary sacrifice in the early stage of development, and since East Africa’s development history is short, the consequences of environmental degradation have yet to manifest on a large scale. Decisions about this can wait until signs appear.

According to Ernst’s idea, at least for the first two Five-Year Plans, East Africa does not need to focus much on environmental concerns. Moreover, the East African Government has already done much within its capabilities in the environmental protection field, being ahead of many countries in the world. Therefore, the short-term impact of East African industrial production on the environment is controllable.

”In the past, our cement production primarily prioritized vital transportation, urban and national defense needs. Now, cement production can overflow into other fields, and the potential for progress is vast. According to the First Five-Year Plan, our annual cement production should exceed 3.5 million tons by the end of 1905.”

”The rapid increase in the production of basic building materials like steel and cement also implies a new stage in our infrastructure construction. Many infrastructure projects are likely facing updates due to material advancements, such as roads, water channels, river embankments, and urban housing updates, among others.”

Regarding this, Ernst can only express condolences to East African Black slaves. With the progress of the times, East Africa’s infrastructure work not only doesn’t pause with the completion of large projects but has escalated even more.

Currently, East Africa still controls a large amount of free labor, with a total number exceeding at least 10 million people. Besides the Black slaves in the west, East Africa also acquired labor from Madagascar Island and South Africa regions.

The issue of Black slave labor is also one of the primary reasons East Africa hesitates to open its doors. At the time, globally, where slavery systems were still prevalent, especially among Great Powers, only East Africa exemplified this.

Countries like the United Kingdom and France, though they have de facto slavery in their colonies, do not continue such backward systems in their own lands like East Africa does.

If East Africa does not learn from historical Korea and close its doors, it might indeed be severely criticized by the International Community. Furthermore, East Africa’s political and economic systems starkly contrast with the current international mainstream. Since East Africa does not export its culture and politics, other Great Powers haven’t yet united against it.

After all, differing game rules mean they aren’t on the same road in the eyes of Europe and America. Fortunately, East Africa’s geographical location is rather secluded, separated from Europe by the Mediterranean and Sahara Desert. East Africa minding its own business prevents trouble from other nations who might otherwise cause problems for East Africa.

This is not an ideological original sin but an original sin of game rules. Although East Africa does not belong to advanced systems nations, its model can easily provoke hostility.

For instance, changes in France’s political system easily inspired nearby nations’ citizens to imitate, and other countries’ traditional interest groups naturally loathed Napoleon.

If East Africa were a European country, Ernst would certainly not choose such a non-mainstream distinctive path. After all, Ernst never believed East Africa could endure like the Soviet Union unless East Africa’s Monarchy was abolished, which the Rhein Royal Family certainly wouldn’t do.

While Ernst was contemplating, the Ministry of Industry also conducted a comprehensive analysis report on other industry data; in 1904, various sectors in East Africa exhibited a vibrant scene.

In the heavy industry domain, compared with other countries horizontally, East Africa had nearly filled most of the gaps. Whether in terms of the output or quality of heavy industrial products, East Africa had reached the level of world Great Powers.

It further solidified its advantages in new industries such as electricity, oil, and automobiles. The chemical industry’s progress was substantial, achieving a transition from scratch in several key chemical sectors.

Although a comprehensive heavy industry system was essentially achieved, there was still some gap in per capita availability compared to other industrial countries. In simple terms, East Africa could independently produce most heavy industrial products, but there was still room for improvement in overall output.

Regarding the light industry domain, East Africa’s development remained typical, though the textile and medical industries were relatively prominent. However, the overall light industry had a significant gap compared to other countries, and handicraft products still occupied a large proportion within the light industry.

In agriculture, over the past few years, East Africa’s agricultural growth rate kept pace with previous years. However, the degree of mechanization saw further improvements, as did the usage of pesticides and fertilizers, leading to increased grain yield per acre.

In 1904, East Africa further achieved a new high in agricultural product exports, with cash crop exports overwhelmingly dominant. There was a significant increase in tea, rubber, spices, fruits, and vegetables.

In contrast, the proportion of East Africa’s grain exports further declined. Moreover, East Africa imported some high-quality grain and meat products from other countries.

This does not indicate a decline in East Africa’s grain production. From the colonial era to the present, East Africa’s grain production has continuously increased. Given the pressure of population growth, East Africa could not afford to slacken in grain agriculture.

The main reason for the decline in grain export proportion was the increase in cash crop export proportion. While maintaining national food security, the East African Government began to focus on developing cash crop agriculture in the agricultural sector.

Furthermore, international grain prices had been low since the 70s. East Africa’s wheat quality couldn’t compare with grain-producing Great Powers like Russia, the United States, Argentina, which have geographic advantages.

Additionally, during the First Five-Year Plan period, the proportion of rice cultivation in East Africa among the two main grain crops increased significantly. Improved water conservancy infrastructure enabled more regions in East Africa to meet the conditions for rice cultivation. Coupled with rice’s higher yield compared to wheat, East Africa’s staple food structure is quietly changing.