African Entrepreneurship Record

”Your Highness, it is time to express our country’s stance. Based on the various intelligence we have compiled, it can be judged that Tsarist Russia and Japan are bound to go to war, and both sides are currently preparing for it,” Felix said.

”There have been ideas about a war with Japan leaking from within Russia. According to hearsay, the Russian government has long determined that a war with Japan would occur between 1903 and 1905.”

”Therefore, the attitude towards war is not a sudden idea but a significant event planned by Russia for a long time. The intelligence we collected from Europe and the Far East also indicates that recently, the Russian government is strengthening its military presence in the Far East region.”

”Thus, the war news from Russia is evidently not baseless. They are very likely to initiate an attack on Japan.”

Ernst basically agreed with Felix’s reasoning. However, the start of the Russo-Japanese War in the previous lifetime was initiated by Japan’s surprise attack on the Russian army. Yet Felix could not have foreseen Japan, a ”small” country, acting in such an unorthodox manner.

Of course, Ernst did not interrupt Felix’s speech; instead, he let him continue speaking.

”Meanwhile, Japan is also actively preparing for war, especially after signing relevant agreements with the United Kingdom. The military cooperation between the two countries is becoming increasingly frequent, and it is estimated that Japan also has the support of the United States and Far East Empire forces.”

It is almost impossible for the cooperation between Japan and the United Kingdom not to be frequent, as most of Japan’s fleet vessels either originate from or are modeled after the United Kingdom.

Moreover, the support of the Far East Empire for Japan is not surprising. This is not wild speculation from East African officials but is backed by solid evidence. Although there is no official statement, many important figures in the Far East Empire have already had contacts with Japan, which is clearly directed by the current government of the Far East Empire.

This is understandable, even though the two countries have been at war, the threat from Tsarist Russia to the Far East Empire now far exceeds that from Japan.

At present, Tsarist Russia’s Pacific Fleet is stationed at Lushun, and considerable military forces have illegally entered the territory of the Far East Empire, thus from an explicit perspective, Tsarist Russia has already severely infringed on the core interests of the Far East Empire.

In the 19th to early 20th century, ”Any nation sharing a border with Tsarist Russia might have tension as their excessive surface statistics are intimidating. From the current perspective, simply having Russia there is quite daunting.”

Ernst added, ”The possibility of war breaking out between Russia and Japan is at least above ninety percent, and it is highly likely to erupt within this year or next. Now the expansion of the Japanese Navy is nearing completion, and once the Japanese government’s Six-Six Fleet plan is fully executed, the distance to war is very short.”

”According to our intelligence agents’ estimates, the Six-Six Fleet plan should be completed next year, and the Japanese government cannot possibly keep sustaining such a vast force. They can only maintain their country’s operation through launching wars.”

”Therefore, at the latest by next year, Japan will certainly initiate war, and the opponent Japan could target is none other than Tsarist Russia or the Far East Empire. Between these two, Russia’s probability is the greatest.”

Japan has been advancing on the path of light militarism, thus making it fundamentally impossible for them to back down, whereas for Russia, the determination is more uncertain.

However, as long as either of the two nations makes a firm decision, the war is unavoidable. Thus, Ernst determined that the likelihood of war breaking out next year exceeds ninety percent, and it is certain to be Japan that strikes first.

Because Russia is just beginning to borrow money everywhere, reflecting a certain degree of hesitation concerning the war with Japan, which was one of the key reasons for Russia’s defeat in the previous lifetime.

If Russia had increased the attention given to Japan slightly, it might have changed the outcome of the war, but from the current intelligence Ernst obtained, Russia is highly likely to repeat the mistakes of the past.

Sivert asked, ”Then, Your Highness, what role should we play in this war that is likely to occur; to support Russia or Japan?”

Ernst said, ”Whether Japan or Russia wins, it barely affects us significantly. Furthermore, in my view, Japan holds a high possibility of victory in the war, but even if we stand on the side of the victor, East Africa cannot become the biggest winner.”

”If Russia wins, undoubtedly the greatest beneficiary would be France; if Japan wins, the greatest beneficiaries would be England and France. Therefore, East Africa has no need to hastily take sides.”

”For us now, it is to actively seek benefits from this war as much as possible without affecting the economic development of our country, and between Japan and Russia, we have the biggest interests in Russia, so we should strive to extract benefits from Russia.”

Russia is one of East Africa’s largest markets, and its resources are very abundant. Coupled with the fact that the Russian Black Sea can directly reach the East African East Coast, it makes Russia an important economic partner for East Africa.

Therefore, compared to Japan, Russia is more important to East Africa, so between the two countries, Ernst must choose Russia, even if Russia is very likely to fail in the war.

”Russia is one of the most important markets for our agricultural and industrial products, especially in the consumption of advanced industrial goods such as automobiles and electricity, which are among the top rankings. In Japan, our interests are negligible; the Japanese economy is mainly controlled by England and the United States, so even with effort, we cannot break in, and Japan also struggles to offer us compelling terms.”

”In conclusion, whether it is Russia or Japan, their expansions in the Far East could potentially harm our interests. Thus, if Russia and Japan could both suffer losses, it would be the best news for us.”

From Ernst’s perspective, Russia’s likelihood of defeat is the highest. After all, the Russian Navy is mere façade, while the Japanese Navy, though not as large as the Russian Navy, is unmatched by any country in the Far East region.

This further solidifies Ernst’s stance to provide limited support to Russia; for many countries in the world, Russia is quite unpopular.

However, it is the opposite for East Africa. At least at this stage, the economic complementarity between East Africa and Russia is very high, maintaining fairly harmonious relations between the two countries due to mutual benefits.

Thus, East Africa cannot afford to offend Russia; instead, it should support Russia. Yet this support should not enable Russia to win the war, just merely slow its defeat and exhaust Japan’s potential more.

Hence, Ernst said, ”Initiate negotiations with the Russian government. We can provide a certain level of support to Russia in funding and other areas, but Russia also needs to show sincerity by allowing our agricultural and industrial goods to enter the Russian market more easily, and Russia should broaden the scope of trade with East Africa, especially facilitating the import of petroleum and other products.”

Russian petroleum costs are relatively low. Currently, Russia’s developed oil fields are mainly located along the Caspian Sea shores. It only requires a short terrestrial transport to reach East Africa through the Black Sea, Mediterranean, and Red Sea.

Although the transportation cost advantage lies with Romanian and Austria-Hungary oil, their output is relatively low, and numerous competitors reduce their stakes, making the portion of Russian oil resources in East African imported petroleum steadily grow.

The development of the East African petroleum industry and internal combustion engine vehicles urges increasing demand for petroleum resources, making it imperative for East Africa to value Russian oil resources.

Petroleum is just one common resource, and East Africa has substantial demand for other Russian products too, including high-quality wheat, oats, etc. The agricultural complementarity between the two countries is strong, as a tropical nation and a temperate-to-cold nation make their crops’ advantages ideally non-conflicting.

Furthermore, the quality of Russian agricultural products, particularly grains, their taste and nutrition are superior to other European countries, even much stronger than East Africa. Currently, East African grains, apart from rice, are more oriented towards raw material production for the industry because their quality and taste cannot satisfy local citizens’ needs.