African Entrepreneurship Record

As time passed, the progression of the war became increasingly unfavorable for Russia, with the Lushun Navy unable to break through for a long time. In this situation, Russia started to prepare for the worst.

On one hand, the Russian government began preparations with the Baltic Fleet, bringing it to a state of readiness, while on the other hand, it started lobbying countries along the route, especially the United Kingdom, Germany, France, and the Three Kingdoms of East Africa, seeking support to ensure smooth sailing routes.

February 26, 1894.

The Russian ambassador to East Africa, Maxim, once again approached the East African government.

”We, Russia, hope that East Africa will support our country in this round of war by opening the two West Coast ports of Luanda or Cabinda, as well as East Coast ports that can provide related services, the Kundian in the South Sea Region, and the Southern Ryukyu Islands in the Far East, to offer services such as warship maintenance and material supplies during the war.”

The regional position of East Africa and the distribution of its colonies can perfectly solve the current predicament of the Russian naval expedition, especially the Southern Ryukyu Islands and the Lanfang Overseas Province.

Once the Russian fleet crosses the Malacca Strait, the Lanfang Overseas Province will be one of the main locations within the region to provide services for the Russian Navy, unless countries like France provide related services to the Russian Navy.

The location of the Southern Ryukyu Islands is even more strategically positioned. Given the Far East Empire’s declared neutral stance, if the Southern Ryukyu Islands could serve the Russian Navy in the maritime theater between Japan and Russia, it could undoubtedly play a major role, but of course, East Africa would certainly not agree.

”Ambassador Maxim, there is no major issue with other cities and colonies in East Africa, but the Southern Ryukyu Islands must absolutely not participate in the war. After all, our control over the Southern Ryukyu Islands is already weak due to distance issues.”

”Moreover, Japan has always been ambitious about the Southern Ryukyu Islands, and our country must not give Japan a pretext for war. The Southern Ryukyu Islands are too close to Japan’s mainland, and any risk is beyond what we can bear.”

No matter what, Ernst would not open the Southern Ryukyu Islands to Russia. If they were given a pretext, Japan might make an article out of it to seize the Southern Ryukyu Islands.

At that time, the East African Navy no longer held the dominance it had over the Japanese Navy a decade ago. If Japan was determined to oppose East Africa, then Alaska, the Southern Ryukyu Islands, and the Northern Hawaii Kingdom could all be in jeopardy, causing decades of planning in the Pacific Region for East Africa to be in vain.

Despite this, Maxim still wanted to make an effort, as the Southern Ryukyu Islands could greatly assist Russia if they played a role in the war.

Maxim suggested, ”Your Highness, don’t be in a rush to refuse. If East Africa could provide us with the Southern Ryukyu Islands as a temporary base, after Russia defeats Japan, we are willing to share a portion of the spoils with your country. As far as I know, the Southern Ryukyu Islands are part of the Ryukyu Islands. Once our country wins the war, it’s entirely possible to include the Northern Ryukyu Islands in the negotiation outcomes and transfer them to East Africa for management post-war.”

This suggestion can be described as very bold, revealing to some extent that the Russian government had already made a judgment on Japan’s fate, assuming Japan’s defeat in the Russo-Japanese War. Without a doubt, a defeated Japan would be on the brink of bankruptcy, as a defeat invariably leads to the destruction of Japan’s Combined Fleet.

If the war ends as such, with Japan losing its navy, it would become prey for Russia. Although its mainland might be preserved due to guarantees from British and American countries, its overseas colonies, including Korea and other Pacific colonies, would likely be divided by Russia.

Ernst naturally could not agree with the Russian government’s fantasy. From the beginning of the war, Ernst was a hundred percent certain that even if Russia didn’t lose miserably, it couldn’t possibly defeat Japan; at most, both sides would suffer severe losses, and the probability of a tie was no more than ten percent.

Thus, Ernst was completely unmoved by the grand promises Maxim painted. He said, ”Ambassador Maxim, East Africa decides not to gamble its own territory on the war. While we are quite ’optimistic’ about Russia and willing to offer whatever help we can, the Southern Ryukyu Islands are East Africa’s bottom line and cannot be recklessly moved.”

In response to Ernst’s straightforward refusal, Maxim said, ”Your Highness, our Russian Navy is far superior to Japan. The soon-to-be-formed Pacific Second Fleet is powerful, coupled with the Far East Fleet’s initial attrition of the Japanese Navy. Once the Second Fleet arrives in the Far East waters, it will be the end of the Japanese Navy, with the advantage entirely on our side...”

According to Maxim’s words, indeed Russia’s navy seems to have a great chance of winning; if it were in a war with another country, Ernst might actually believe it.

However, Ernst knows both Russia and Japan quite well, and the Japanese Navy is absolutely not as easily manipulated by Russia as Maxim suggests, nor is the Russian Navy as disciplined and invincible as he imagines.

In terms of war experience alone, Russia’s last historically significant naval engagement was in the Crimean War. In recent years, the only noteworthy conflict was during the Russian-Turkish War, but candidly speaking, a conflict against the Ottoman Empire cannot compare to a contender of Japan’s level.

In Ernst’s view, Japan’s investment in military construction over the years far exceeds that of Russia, not in terms of budget or the number of ships, since by Japan’s scale, it could never surpass Russia, but in terms of military system, exceeding Russia. If both the Russian and Japanese navies each invested a hundred dollars, at least fifty percent would be embezzled by Russian officers, whereas Japan’s might be less than ten percent, resulting in morale incomparable to that of the Russian Navy.

Additionally, Japan’s naval equipment domain does not hold a generation gap with Russia, with a similar scale. Although Russia might form an ocean-going fleet to aid the Pacific theater, preparing such a fleet could take up to six months, during which time the Far East Fleet in Lushun would have long drowned, while the Japanese Navy could easily await the fatigued Pacific Second Fleet.

The Russian Pacific Second Fleet seems formidable, but once war begins, its performance might not even compare to the original Far East Fleet.

The Russian Far East Fleet, after all, is adapted to the climate of East Asia and familiar with the local hydrography, whereas the Pacific Second Fleet, which is actually the Baltic Fleet, would be like a headless fly upon entering the Far East waters, struggling to adapt to the battlefield environment.

In the previous life during the Russo-Japanese War, Russian ship losses reached over two hundred thousand tons, with eight out of twelve battleships sunk, and four captured. Of the eight cruisers, three were sunk, one was lost, and three were detained by a third country, leaving only one to escape back to Vladivostok. Russian naval personnel saw over four thousand deaths, nearly six thousand captured, with another eighteen hundred detained in a neutral country. Japan, on the other hand, achieved this result at the meager cost of three sunken torpedo boats and over a hundred naval personnel killed.

Given such past performance, Ernst could in no way believe that the Russian Navy could overturn the situation. In the previous life, the Russian Navy’s performance was said to be no better than that of pigs, causing abrasions at most on the Japanese Navy. Moreover, Japan even profited from the captured Russian naval vessels, making no loss and inflicting zero damage.

So for the combat capabilities of the Russian Navy, Ernst trusts the reality; its current level could certainly not exceed its past performance, leaving it only to be beaten in the Far East Region.

East Africa, too, could not gamble on Russia’s victory, offering any services provided to Russia in pursuit of the Russian market and resources.

To be even more blunt, if the Far East Empire enjoyed the equipment advantages of the Russian Navy, then perhaps the outcome of previous battles in the Far East would have gone differently, further indicating the severe internal issues within the Russian Navy at that time.

As for the Russian Navy, Ernst holds no hope whatsoever, and the grand gesture involving the entire Ryukyu Islands described by Maxim remains a mere fantasy from Russia’s side. Ernst believes that after some more lessons from Japan in the coming period, Russia would simply fall into line.