Homo Sapiens

After getting a clear picture of their inventory and financial situation, Gafei asked Zhang Jerry:

”Jerry, we can’t just keep taking these hits. We need to go on the offensive. Do you have a plan?”

”Of course. In fact, for the better part of the last year, I’ve been coordinating with the Security Division and making preparations. We’re about to give ABCD a big gift.” Zhang Jerry clenched his fist, his face contorting into a vicious scowl.

”Oh? Planning to blow them up again?” Xu Yingming joked.

Zhang Jerry shook his head. ”An explosion works once, but doing it again risks exposure. This time, we’re going to try something new.”

”Then I’ll be looking forward to it.” Gafei was very excited to see what the company had in store.

Zhang Jerry’s eyes were predatory. ”Soon. The groundwork has been laid. This time, I’m going to make ABCD spit out decades of profits, with interest.”

...

「Britain」

London, home to a world-renowned financial industry.

This, of course, included major commodities on the international futures market. Agricultural products like wheat, sugar, sunflower oil, palm oil, rice, soybeans, and soybean meal were also hot commodities.

The ABCD companies had dedicated offices here, responsible for trading agricultural product futures and handling things like risk hedging.

Since the North American soybean planting in May and June had gone smoothly and the weather was good, and with buyers from Huaguo shifting their focus to South America and Lucia, all the major institutions believed that soybean and soybean meal prices would be on the lower side in the second half of the year.

David, head of the futures trading department at Louis Dreyfus, was currently watching the market.

Suddenly, he noticed that many long orders had appeared on the day’s trading screen, adding up to tens of millions of US dollars.

In fact, for the past six months, quite a few long orders had been placed for North American soybean and soybean meal futures set for delivery in August and September.

David mentally estimated that the accumulated capital from these long positions already exceeded three billion US dollars.

He secretly scoffed at them for being fools. ’The forecast for a bumper North American soybean harvest is clear, and international prices for soybeans and soybean meal are already low, with room to fall even further. Anyone going long now is guaranteed to lose money.’

After discussing it with a few colleagues, David contacted the heads of the futures trading departments at Bunge, Cargill, and Archer Daniels Midland.

The futures analysis from all four companies was remarkably consistent: prices for soybeans and soybean meal would continue to fall in the second half of the year. They could now join forces to short soybeans and soybean meal, hedging their companies’ losses in the physical soybean trade.

Therefore, David and the others began leading the ABCD futures traders in methodically placing short orders for soybeans and soybean meal on the market.

But the short orders they placed were quickly snapped up.

David and the others didn’t pay it much mind, only remarking to themselves that there were a surprising number of rich fools this year.

This game between long and short positions might only seem to involve tens of millions of US dollars per transaction, but the cumulative total was substantial.

As the dominant forces in the agricultural sector, coupled with their American backing, the ABCD companies were granted very high leverage by investment banks all over the world.

If international soybean and soybean meal prices were to suddenly reverse, it was highly likely ABCD would be unable to bear the pressure and be forced into immediate liquidation.

But David and the others were far too optimistic. They felt there was no chance for soybean prices to rise in the second half of the year. After all, their employers were the world’s largest soybean producers. ’Whether the price goes up or down is ultimately decided by ABCD, isn’t it?’

Therefore, whenever they saw long orders, they took the other side without hesitation and even continued to open more short positions of their own. This caused their leverage ratio to steadily increase, with the risk accumulating in the shadows.

David and the others dreamed of making a killing.

But a crisis was closing in on them.

...

「North America」

The Great Lakes Plains and the Mississippi River Great Plains are both famous large-scale mechanized agricultural zones in North America. Across America, a total of roughly 115 million acres of soybeans are planted.

This is the world’s largest soybean cultivation area, and also the region with the highest soybean yield.

And 94% of North American soybeans are genetically modified, with Monsanto Company’s GM soybean varieties being the most prominent among them.

Decatur, Illinois.

The ADM Headquarters building, which had been bombed beyond recognition, had been demolished and the site cleared after more than half a year of work.

Fortunately, ADM had plenty of other office buildings in the area to use as a temporary headquarters.

Hook, who still ran a pet shop here, ended his road trip of more than two weeks and returned to his shop, from which he’d been away for some time, with his beloved pet rat in tow.

”Welcome back, Mr. Hook!” his employee, Jessica, greeted with a smile.

Hook waved a hand. ”Jessica, any problems at the shop while I was gone?”

”None.”

Hook opened the back of his pickup truck and began unloading several boxes of bees.

”Are those bees?” Jessica asked curiously.

”Yep. I bought them down south. I need to build a greenhouse for them quickly, or they won’t make it through the winter,” Hook said as he carried the beehives.

Jessica wasn’t surprised by her boss’s bizarre hobbies. Or rather, compared to some of the mavericks and oddballs in America, Hook’s behavior was practically normal.

As the two of them chatted idly, a deadly crisis was descending upon the soybean farms of the Great Lakes Plains.

At Soybean Farm No. 15, an ADM-owned property on the shores of Lake Michigan, farm manager Old Hall was preparing to give the soybeans their last application of chemical fertilizer.

But as he drove the heavy sprayer truck through the soybean fields, he noticed something wasn’t right.

”Huh? Why are there so many yellow leaves?” He couldn’t easily stop to check, so he grabbed his walkie-talkie. ”Bob... head into the field and check on the soybeans. I think I’m seeing a lot of yellow leaves.”

”KSHHH... OK.”

Bob, who was in charge of spraying pesticides on the farm, drove an ATV out into the middle of the fields.

Taking a closer look, he saw that many of the soybean leaves were indeed covered with yellow spots and showed signs of being diseased.

”Downy mildew? What’s going on? This variety is supposed to be highly disease-resistant.” Bob took off his cowboy hat and scratched his sweaty head.

He realized the disease was already severe, and since the farm didn’t have pesticides specifically for killing this type of fungus, his only option was to report it to headquarters immediately.

But by the time ADM, Cargill, and Bunge could react, the downy mildew caused by the soybean pathogen had already erupted all across North America.

The confirmed infected area alone had reached roughly 13 million acres.

Based on past experience with fungal infections, once it appeared on one farm, surrounding farms within the same watershed were also highly likely to be infected.

Clearly, large-scale outbreaks of soybean downy mildew had occurred around the Five Great Lakes and the Mississippi River. This meant that basically all soybean farms in these two regions were at risk of infection.

Spraying pesticides to kill the fungus now was basically a lost cause. Usually, prevention was achieved through seed and soil disinfection.

Sure enough, over the next week, the downy mildew continued its rampage. Any farm planting genetically modified soybeans could hardly escape its grasp.

This situation stunned the researchers at ADM, Cargill, and Bunge.

After conducting tests and experiments, they quickly discovered the source of the problem: the soybean pathogen seemed to have ”evolved” a specific ability to target genetically modified soybeans.

A specific exogenous gene present in several of the GM soybean varieties was being ”specially targeted” by the soybean pathogen.

North America’s soybean crop was dealt a devastating blow by this sudden outbreak of downy mildew.