The Shadow of Great Britain

Chapter 985: Chapter 52: 37 Years

Louis Bonaparte initially believed that he could isolate the North German Confederation from the southern German states and exploit the dissatisfaction existing in the regions recently annexed by Prussia. By doing so, the French Army could control the lines of communication between the north and the south, forcing Prussia to hastily deploy all its existing troops toward the Rhine River, regardless of their level of combat readiness. In this way, the entire mobilization process of the Prussians would be disrupted, and the invading French Army could secure victory, breaking the Prussian forces that would arrive successively from various places.

However, according to the author’s calculations, France could mobilize a total of 340 battalions, and it would be impossible for France to reinforce its army with new, combat-ready troops before early September. Meanwhile, the Prussian Army alone had 950,000 soldiers in Northern Germany. Their advantage lay in this, and the longer the decisive battle was delayed, the more pronounced this advantage became. By the end of September, this advantage would reach its peak.

Thus, when our Emperor Louis Bonaparte went to the battlefield with the Queen yesterday, his defeat was almost predestined. The hope for a French victory was effectively counting down and would become increasingly dim until it dissipated in the scent of gun smoke.

——”Pall Mall News” military column, July 29, 1870 edition

”Minutes of the British Cabinet Office Intelligence Committee Meeting, July 17, 1870”

Topic: The decision-making stance of the British Government in the event of a possible Franco-Prussian War

Chair: Cabinet Office Secretary and Chief Civil Servant of Britain, Sir Arthur Hastings

Participants: Permanent Under-Secretary of the Treasury Sir Charles Quilliam, Permanent Under-Secretary of the Foreign Office Sir Auguste Schneider, Permanent Under-Secretary of the Navy Department Sir Eldred Carter, Permanent Under-Secretary of the Army Department Sir Stanford Noscott, Director of the ’Secret Intelligence Service’ at the Foreign Office Under-Secretary Bureau Sir Alan Pinkerton, Director of the ’National Security Agency’ at the Home Office Under-Secretary Bureau Sir Adam Flanders...

Main Agenda: Reports from the Secret Intelligence Service, National Security Agency, Government Communications Headquarters, Military Intelligence Staff, and Industrial Intelligence Center to the Cabinet Office Intelligence Committee concerning intelligence operations regarding France and Prussia, and reviewing telegraphs from the diplomatic departments of France, Prussia, Russia, Austria, and other European countries.

Speech Records:

Sir Alan Pinkerton: ”According to reports from the Secret Intelligence Service’s station in France, during the Cabinet meeting held at the Tuileries Palace on the morning of the 14th, ministers of the French Empire were indecisive on the topic of war or peace. However, by the evening of the 14th, Napoleon III convened another interim Cabinet meeting at Saint-Cloud, excluding two pacifist ministers. Queen Eugenie attended this meeting and openly expressed to the Emperor that ’national honor requires war.’

The social atmosphere in Paris was also on the verge of turmoil, with the masses filling the streets, shouting slogans like ’Down with Bismarck, March to the Rhine River.’ The enormous parades even forced the public carriage routes to be diverted. We have reason to believe that Napoleon III and his Cabinet have been subjected to immense pressure from public opinion, and the hope for peace is increasingly dwindling. The decision by France to call up reservists for enlistment was not meant to intimidate Prussia, but rather, the two nations truly stand on the brink of war.”

Sir Adam Flanders: ”Napoleon III conveyed a request for alliance through private channels of the National Security Agency with an extremely humble attitude. Based on the earnest wording in his letter and considering the current internal situation in France and the external environment, the intelligence department of the National Security Agency preliminarily judged that Napoleon III’s policy of seeking a balance among the various factions in France had already been declared bankrupt.

According to statistics, in the elections held last year, the votes of the government candidates of Napoleon III compared to the opposition were 4.45 million to 3.35 million. From the votes, it seems that over the past decade, the advantage of the candidates nominated by the government is diminishing, and the government’s control over the elections is gradually weakening.

The loss of advantage and the tilting of the Empire State Building have caused Napoleon III’s political maneuvers to become distorted and flawed, bringing him an unprecedented sense of defeat. In this diplomatic action against Prussia, he initially succumbed to the influence of the left wing and later began to support right-wing propositions. Amidst the wave of angry public opinion, he has gradually lost his usual calm and composure.

However, our intelligence officers believe that Napoleon III still advocates for peace, and he is very aware of the fatal danger he is soon to face. Thiers also insists on peace, but Napoleon III, at this moment, dare not openly support this capable subordinate.

Judging from the social atmosphere in Paris at this time, Napoleon III indeed needs a glorious military victory to restore his dwindling prestige. However, according to the analysis by the military intelligence staff, France is completely unprepared for a full-scale war with Prussia at this time. Based on reports from our intelligence officers in Prussia, Prussia had already begun a comprehensive reform of its mobilization system many years ago.

In the war between Prussia and Austria, the Prussians took only a month to mobilize 280,000 people to the Austrian border. Our operational staff, after analyzing the documents summarized by the intelligence officers, reached a startling conclusion: Once Prussia orders full national mobilization and utilizes six railway lines to transport between the Moselle River and the Rhine River area.