Empire Rising: Spain

By the beginning of 1880, the population of Spain had officially surpassed 20 million. This milestone was significant for Spain, representing a major step towards becoming a European power.

European countries with populations below 10 million can by no means be considered major countries. Similarly, European countries with populations below 20 million can by no means be considered strong powers.

With a population exceeding 20 million, Spain had truly secured its position as a great power, with the potential to advance further in the ranks of great powers and expand its international influence and status.

Throughout 1879, the birth rate across major regions of Spain was only about 2%, a figure with considerable room for improvement.

Even if it did not reach the more exaggerated 5% like the Andalusia Region, it could certainly be raised to above 3%, thereby significantly increasing the scale of Spain’s population growth.

With a population above 20 million, a 3% birth rate translates to over 600,000 children being born each year. Even considering that some of these children might die prematurely, and accounting for other deaths, Spain’s annual net population growth could still potentially remain between 200,000 to 300,000.

Adding the scale of immigration, Spain’s annual population growth might stay around 350,000 to 400,000, a rather impressive growth rate.

More importantly, of the current over 20 million Spanish citizens, the majority are Spaniards, accounting for an extraordinary 89.5%, with the main ethnic group numbering 18 million.

The high proportion of Spaniards is actually quite normal. This era saw the formation of national identity, and due to the Spanish Government’s intervention, apart from Catalans and Basque having relatively clear self-recognition, most of the Spanish population considered themselves pure Spaniards, not feeling they were a minority within Spain.

After a significant number of Catalonian radicals were eradicated, many Catalans also considered themselves Spaniards, merely residing in Catalonia, which did not necessarily mean they possessed Catalan heritage.

Only about 2 million people genuinely considered themselves not to be Spaniards, with the larger populations being Catalans, Basque, and Galicians.

Aside from the relatively unique case of the Basque, both Catalans and Galicians had the potential to be fully assimilated by Spain.

Once Catalans and Galicians were fully assimilated, whether the Basque could be completely assimilated became less important.

After all, the combined Basque population of both regions barely numbered in the tens of thousands. If they refused to accept Spanish rule, at worst, they could all be removed from Spain.

While the Basque were brave and formidable warriors, their limited population greatly restricted their threat. For Spain at this time, the initiative was entirely in its own hands.

Especially after exceeding a population of 20 million, Spain had enough capital to take strong measures against the Basque. Even if all Basque were expelled from Spain, the country’s population would not be significantly reduced, nor would it greatly affect national development.

Spain’s birth rate was not prominent across Europe, not even ranking highly.

Russia, as the most populous country in Europe, had an equally exaggerated birth rate. Russia’s birth rate generally exceeded 5%, meaning over 5 million newborns each year.

Of course, as one of the great powers with the poorest basic environment, Russia’s death rate also remained high.

Russia’s death rate hovered between 3.5% and 4%, meaning that roughly 3 to 4 million people also died annually in Russia.

With the birth rate minus the death rate, Russia’s annual population increase was only over 1 million. Of course, this number was continuously rising.

After all, Tsar Alexander II’s abolition of serfdom did indeed have effects, albeit limited ones, but at least it allowed Russian peasants some respite.

Overall, Europe’s birth rates showed a trend of lower rates in Central and Western Europe and higher rates in Southern and Eastern Europe.

The relatively prosperous France, for instance, maintained a birth rate below 3%, rarely breaking through. Although France’s death rate was only about 2%, this still meant France’s net population growth remained relatively slow.

Most European countries had birth rates exceeding 2%, primarily due to the poor medical technology of the era; without a high birth rate, extinction was not an exaggeration.

Despite high birth rates, European countries also saw high death rates annually. Coupled with the considerable number of newborns who perished, this meant that even with relatively high birth rates, population growth speed was not necessarily high in Europe.

With Russia’s population over 100 million, its annual population increase was only slightly over 1 million; far less for European powers with populations of only 20 or 30 million, where annual net increases were just 200,000 to 300,000, vastly disproportionate to future population growth rates.

In the future, while birth rates in various countries were relatively low, death rates and newborn mortality rates were also exceedingly low.

It might only be after significant advancements in medical technology, dramatically reducing death rates and newborn mortality, that Europe’s population could see a new surge.