Supreme Magus

Chapter 4441: Many Eggs in one Basket (Part 1)

”But Keyla did notice that something was wrong with Ghishal when the reports started flooding in.” Lith said. ”Why didn’t she ask Brinja for help then?”

”For the reasons Keyla explained to you when you visited the Lark Estate and that Kamila just mentioned. Rivalries.” Jirni said. ”All the local lords compete not only with their neighbors, but also with the other nobles of comparable influence in their fief.

”Keyla and the other struggling nobles didn’t want to admit how badly they were doing, so they played into the hands of the bandits by minimizing their issues and using their personal funds to compensate the victims of the raids and hire more guards.

”Brinja didn’t notice what was happening because those she trusted to act as her eyes and ears in the various counties played dumb to save their faces.”

”This gives us a better picture of the problem, but offers us no solution.” Lith replied. ”What do you think we are dealing with?”

”It could be anything, but if I had to guess, I’d say someone is staging several coups inside the Distar region.” Jirni said. ”It’s the only explanation that covers all the facts. An inexplicable small issue that snowballs into a failure big enough to cost the local lords their fiefs.

”If I’m right, we’re dealing with a bloodless takeover that is making lots of people rich and will increase their noble status without having to move a finger. The rival nobles leak the information to the bandits, probably in exchange for a share of the loot.

”The bandits succeed, the local lord changes tactics, the rival nobles leak it again, making it ineffective. Rinse and repeat until people like Keyla are removed from office despite their noble sacrifices and valiant efforts.”

”What about the nobles who are successful in dealing with the bandits?” Lith’s jaw clenched in outrage.

”They are relatively successful, Lith.” Kamila replied. ”Half the caravans still get hit, but compared to Barla and Keyla they look good. Also, remember what I’ve said about rivalries.

”Were everyone equally unsuccessful, the local lords would have shared their problems and reported them to Brinja. They didn’t do it because a few of them had no such problem, and no one wanted to admit defeat first.

”The bandits failing on purpose to keep the nobles from working together is the best-case scenario, though. Worst case scenario, the successful rulers are in cahoots with the bandits.

”As I told you, most of the ’successful nobles’ were deemed incompetent by the Royal Court. According to my research, they were about to be replaced.”

”But now that they have proven their valor, they will keep their seats.” Lith nodded in understanding.

”It’s a nice theory, but if we present it to Brinja without any evidence, it won’t change anything.” Jirni said. ”She must judge the performance of her retainers based on facts and numbers, not coincidences and speculations.

”She will of course launch an investigation, but it will find nothing more than what we already did. To make matters worse, predicting the bandits’ targets will become much harder once spring arrives.

”There will be so many merchant caravans going around that it will be impossible to find the bandits that helped the nobles stage the coups among all the common criminals that know nothing about this.”

”In other words, unless we do something now, Keyla is going to lose Ghishal County.” Lith nodded.

”She and Jadon aren’t the only ones affected by the issue, but yes.” Kamila replied.

”Give me a second. I need to make a call.” Lith took his communication amulet and pressed Keyla’s rune. ”I’m sorry, but there is no time for pleasantries. Are you alone?”

”No, but it’s an easy fix.” A minute later, Keyla was alone in her office and up to speed with the results of Jirni’s investigation. ”Good gods. You were right, Lith. I should have called you as soon as the trouble in Ghishal started.”

”This is no time for recriminations.” Lith replied. ”How is it going with the merchant caravans? Did my arrival stop the bandit raids as we predicted?”

”That’s too early to say.” Keyla said. ”Carriages are much slower than your DoLorean, Lith. I shipped essential goods as soon as news of your presence spread, and so far, everything is going fine.

”The caravans have already reached a few villages and delivered their cargo. Usually, the chances of being attacked decrease with each stop. The more merchandise gets unloaded, the less valuable the cargo becomes and the faster the convoy can move.

”Unless the carriages transport luxury goods, they aren’t worth robbing after about half the merch is delivered. I’m confident the rest of the deliveries should not encounter any problem, but if this is really about a coup, then everything goes.”

”Keep me posted about the caravans.” Lith pondered. ”If I’m right, the mastermind behind this won’t dare make a move until they make sure that I can’t get far from my children.

”We’ve already collected everything we need for our investigation, but we’ll prolong our stay by five more days with the excuse of needing clarifications about a few documents. In the meantime, I want you to act as if you know nothing.

”Pretend to be happy about the successful caravans and start the arrangements for a single major shipment. A cargo big enough to recoup part of your losses and restock most of the villages until spring.”

”I can do that, but why should I? It’s too soon to put so many eggs in one basket.” Keyla asked.

”Because it’s a trap.” Lith replied. ”If this is a coup, whoever is behind the scenes can’t risk seeing the work of months go into the gutter because of a single caravan, and the bandits will gladly agree if the pot is large enough.

”Yet don’t change your routine. Contact only those you have used until this moment and keep everyone else in the dark. Don’t lower your security. Increase it if you can afford it. Also, I suggest you organize multiple lesser caravans to use as decoys.

”On the surface, it must look like you are splitting the cargo among many convoys to limit the damage if one of them gets hit. Yet your ’real intention’ is to bet your future on a single well-guarded shipment.

”After all, I’ll still be in a nearby county, and you’ll ’assume’ that the bandits are too scared of me to make a move.

Moreover, if someone questions your judgment, point out that nobody knows the decoy caravans carry rocks and that even if they get robbed and the bandits expose the trick, by that point it will be too late to stop the real caravan.”

”It’s a good plan, but I bet there’s more to it.” Keyla nodded. ”How will you secure the cargo, though?”

”The same way I’ll find the proof of the coup against you.” Lith said. ”I’ll take part in the expedition as a Snow Thrower. When the bandits attack, I’ll be right there to capture them and work my way up the chain of command.

”The bandits will lead me to their leader, and their leader will point me at their source inside your court. Then I’ll let Jirni and Kami do the honors.”