God's Imitator

Qin Cheng added, ”On the cell block side, I waited roughly five or six minutes, then had Zheng injure me.

”That way I went into the Medical Room and he went to Solitary Confinement.

”Looking at the rules, there’s actually no strict requirement to stay in the cell block at all times. Even if your teammates outside push Contraband through the window, there’s no need to worry much about it expiring. You just need to be back in the cell block a minute or two before the round ends to receive it.

”The bigger concern was the Medical Room and Solitary Confinement. If no one from our side was present there, those could easily become fatal vulnerabilities.

”When players from both communities enter the same room, whoever leaves last gets to take all the Contraband.

”The Medical Room allows free entry and exit, so timing isn’t critical. But Solitary Confinement has a fixed 20-minute stay, so entering later is better.

”In theory, you could also open a unit of raw materials after receiving them to trigger a violation and enter Solitary Confinement that way, which would also give you information about what’s inside the packaging. But I thought it over and didn’t go with that approach.

”Because at that point we had no idea what was happening outside, and we weren’t sure when we’d receive the first unit of materials.

”If no Contraband was being pushed through the prison windows, we’d have to wait for materials that came through the official channel to clear inspection before they could reach us, which would mean missing the entire first round. That would have defeated the purpose.”

Huang Shengjie nodded, ”Right. And then what happened?”Shen Bowen picked up the thread, ”Once the game officially began, we found that the other community had adopted a broadly similar strategy.

”The good news was that we each went about our own business. They made no attempt to interfere with us.”

Huang Shengjie looked slightly deflated, ”So out of the two sessions, four teams, we were actually the only ones who didn’t figure out until Round Two that you could open the packaging to get painkillers?”

The newly recruited Zhang Yan thought for a moment and offered some reassurance, ”I don’t think that’s anything to feel down about. Coming up with that idea doesn’t necessarily reflect a higher level of gameplay.

”My sense is that a community’s attitude toward medications would also affect how sensitive its players are to that kind of strategy.”

Lu Bingjun gave a nod of approval, ”Yes, that’s a fair point.

”Based on what we’ve seen, most communities don’t exercise control over the medications.

”Players who regularly experience pain in the community and have developed a habit of taking medication will naturally be more attuned to keywords like ’pain’ and ’medication,’ and they really are more likely to think of opening the packages.”

Huang Shengjie turned it over and found it made sense, and felt somewhat better.

Shen Bowen continued, ”Round One ended up being reasonable for both sides. The earnings were roughly in the 80,000 range for each.

”Zhang Yan was on the other side working as Distributor and doubling as a Contraband runner. He had a physical edge and moved more Contraband. On our end, I compensated by pre-positioning materials and delivering as much Contraband as possible, which roughly closed the gap.

”During that process, we were also making contact with each other, and by Round Two we had reached an agreement to drop the inspection on both sides and run only Contraband through the steam train.”

Huang Shengjie nodded, ”That should have pushed the earnings very high. Roughly 160,000 to 170,000?

”We were at around that figure in Round Three as well.

”Strange, though. So how did your total end up so low? Did something go wrong in Round Three?”

Qin Cheng took over, ”Let me explain.

”The key is that Round Three was effectively a textbook prisoner’s dilemma, and both sides independently chose to defect.

”Actually, just from looking at the rules, the conclusion should be easy to reach: this is a game where defence has the advantage, and it’s also a game that rewards cooperation.

”If you use the official channel, sending cargo through the steam train, you can’t safely mix in too much Contraband, because the opposing Inspector only needs to spot-check a few times and then decide whether to trigger a Full Inspection, which can cause you a significant loss.

”And if you try to smuggle by hand, all the other side needs is one reasonably fit player to block two or even three of your players from delivering.

”This game is a classic positive-sum scenario. Both sides each going about their own business is the optimal solution, because even letting the other side freely deliver Contraband costs your side nothing.

”But in practice, the game isn’t that simple.

”In Round One, cooperation between the two sides is very difficult to achieve, especially since the Inspector needs to reach the Inspection Room early. Sending large amounts of Contraband through the steam train isn’t really feasible.

”Round Two is where cooperation has the best chance of succeeding, and that’s exactly what happened in our session.

”But in Round Three, the situation changes again.

”Under the rules, the winning community receives a bonus of 10,000 Gold Pounds. And if the winning side’s total reaches one and a half times the other community’s total, a 1.5x multiplier is applied to the entire amount.

”That’s an enormous incentive.

”Based on our estimates at the time, Round One earnings were roughly 80,000 Gold Pounds, Round Two roughly 160,000, with the other side in a similar position.

”If both sides did nothing differently in Round Three, the earnings would again be around 160,000 each.

”But if one side defected, the outcome would look completely different.

”First, the defecting side would choose Full Inspection in the Inspection Room, destroying all 28 Contraband units the other side had sent through.

”The cooperative side’s expected net earnings of 86,800 Gold Pounds would be wiped out entirely, and they would additionally lose roughly 14,000 Gold Pounds in material costs.

”Meanwhile, the defecting side would earn 1,000 Gold Pounds per Contraband unit detected, for a total of 28,000 Gold Pounds from inspection alone.

”All told, that single manoeuvre directly opens a gap of 130,000 Gold Pounds between the two sides.

”The Inspection Room locks ten minutes into the game. After that, there’s no way to pass information to the Inspector, so even if you found out the other side had defected, you couldn’t instruct your Inspector to respond with a Full Inspection of your own.

”And with a few additional moves, like sending a player to disrupt the other side’s manual Contraband deliveries, the defecting side could easily push their total to one and a half times the cooperative side’s.

”So the actual payoff for executing the defection strategy is this.

”If both sides keep their agreement, both earn roughly 80,000 plus 160,000 plus 160,000, around 400,000 Gold Pounds each. That’s already a very good outcome.

”But if the other side defects while yours cooperates, their actual earnings become 80,000 plus 160,000 plus 160,000 plus 28,000 from inspection plus the 10,000 winner’s bonus, multiplied by 1.5, giving them roughly 660,000 Gold Pounds.

”Of course, if they’re diverting people to interfere with hand deliveries, their Round Three smuggling returns will be reduced somewhat. But even accounting for that, they could still walk away with around 600,000 Gold Pounds.

”Compared to the cooperative outcome, that’s 200,000 Gold Pounds more.

”Which is 400,000 minutes of additional visa time.

”In the Gallery, a sum like that is enough to turn even community members against each other, let alone a fragile cooperative agreement between strangers from different communities.”

Huang Shengjie asked, ”So what did you two ultimately decide to do?”

Qin Cheng answered honestly, ”We went with Full Inspection and switched everything we were sending to ordinary goods.”

Huang Shengjie was quiet for a moment, ”And the other side?”

Shen Bowen answered for Qin Cheng, ”The same.”