African Entrepreneurship Record

Chapter 498: Chapter 176: War Simulation

During the training of black troops, the East African army generals were also analyzing the strategic intentions towards Mozambique.

Arman: ”Based on the intelligence analysis of Mozambique, we can confirm that Mozambique’s army is mainly concentrated in the south, with a large number of trained black troops, the exact number is unknown, but it should not be less than thirty thousand, with more than ten thousand just in Maputo.”

Sivert analyzed: ”We can speculate on how many troops Mozambique would organize according to the maximum capacity. Based on the previous density of our East African natives, Mozambique’s population should be over two million. Although Portugal could possibly organize several hundred thousand troops, they obviously do not have the strength for that, and their issues with weapons and equipment can’t be resolved. However, if pressured by us, they should be able to pull together over ten thousand, and with the help of the British and French, they should be able to form tens of thousands of relatively well-equipped black troops, though their combat effectiveness might not be very high, and the Portuguese themselves should be able to muster a few thousand troops.”

Felix: ”Mozambique shares borders with East Africa on three sides, so they have three directions to attack us: one is the Southern Border Province, another is the Matebele Province, and finally there’s the northern line of Lake Malawi and the Lufuma River. If we assume Portugal mobilizes fifty thousand troops, they only have the ability to attack in one direction.”

Sivert: ”Our defense system along the Lufuma River line is very well established. For over a decade, the Lufuma River has been the de facto border for both sides, so the defensive works along the river are well constructed. If Mozambique attacks the Lufuma River line with blacks as the main force, it would definitely be a foolish move.”

Merk: ”I don’t see it that way. The defense line along the Lufuma River relies on the River and Lake Team, whose capabilities are quite limited. For example, the midstream and upstream areas are not covered, and the river is very long, especially in the west, where the Lufuma River does not extend all the way to Lake Malawi, creating a significant gap.”

Sivert: ”However, correspondingly, the Portuguese have even less advantage along the Lufuma River line. They have hardly developed the south bank of the Lufuma River. We have the River and Lake Team as support, and they probably couldn’t even gather enough ferries unless they temporarily build some for crossing.”

Arman: ”Do you think there is a high possibility of attack on the Southern Border Province and Heixinggen Province?”

”Quite likely. These two places are too close to Maputo. I believe the Portuguese pressure on these two provinces is the greatest.”

”The Heixinggen Province has the Drakensberg Mountains as a barrier, offering natural geographical advantages. The Portuguese should not focus on Heixinggen Province, so military strength in the Southern Border Province should be enhanced. Our military defense in the Southern Border Province focuses on the southern Tugela River line to counter mainly the British, and indeed, the northern line lacks emphasis.”

”If the Portuguese indeed attack the Southern Border Province, they can only come down from the coastal plains. This area is relatively narrow, and deploying one brigade should suffice. Our strategic goal should not be to capture Maputo immediately; otherwise, the Portuguese might surrender outright, so the northern line of the Southern Border Province should be primarily defensive.”

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While East Africa was formulating its strategy against Portugal, the two big brothers, Britain and France, were also helping Portugal devise plans. However, compared to the East African army’s composure, the military personnel of Britain and France were quite troubled.

”The terrain of Mozambique is quite unfavorable for defense. It’s heavy at both ends and light in the middle, making it easy to be split. Whether it can be split in the middle by East Africa depends on the strength of East Africa in the inland territories and their troop deployment.”

”East Africa’s forces are mainly concentrated in two areas, one in the south and one in the north. The number and strength of East African troops across the Lufuma River are probably the strongest, followed by the south. East Africa’s military strength in southern Africa is not weak either, as they have a natural fear of Cape Town,” the British instructor Johnson said smugly.

The British made this judgment very understandably because East Africa indeed deploys its forces this way. North of the Lufuma River is the absolute core area for East Africa, and in southern Africa, East Africa has also made significant military deployments to prevent British forces from moving north.

Johnson said, ”So, although East Africa has numerous troops, it has more areas to defend. We have tied down at least fifty percent of their military strength. If it weren’t for you Portuguese doing nothing, East Africa wouldn’t have been expanding so quickly.”

The French instructor was not pleased by the smug look on the Brit’s face, but the Portuguese were indeed too incompetent, having been in Africa for hundreds of years, still trying to survive on their past glory, only to be bullied by the upstart Germans. It’s too embarrassing.

This is a case of talking the talk without walking the walk. If Portugal indeed had the courage and strength to expand significantly in Africa, then it might take a joint British-French-German effort to deal with Portugal today.

As for why Portugal hasn’t made significant progress in Africa, one truly can’t blame the colonial government. Portugal’s favorite son used to be Brazil, and investments were mainly there. Who could have predicted that Brazil would simply declare independence?

After the loss of Brazil, the internal affairs of the Portuguese government were extremely chaotic, and they had no energy to unite against external forces. The self-consumption was extremely severe, and for the remaining colonies, they squeezed every last drop. Moreover, the aftermath of Brazil’s independence made the Portuguese government very wary of investing in colonies. What if it ends up in vain again?

Compared to treating East Africa as mainland development, the development in Mozambique and Angola was unsatisfactory. East Africa’s development involved continuous investment without regard to cost, while the development in Mozambique and Angola was actually shackled. The mainland still had to extract resources from these two places. After all, the mainland’s economy wasn’t good; even the landowner’s house had no surplus grain.

”So in these two regions, I think the north can only focus on defense. Our goal is to strike and dismember East Africa. It is too unrealistic to destroy East Africa, so it may be better to focus on an offensive against South Africa.”

The reason Johnson thought this way was also partly because he considered using the Portuguese to deplete East Africa’s strength in South Africa. After all, Cape Town was still watching intently from the sidelines!

The French saw through the British’s little tricks and said, ”You’ve already mentioned before that the military investment of East Africa in South Africa is significant. Making the Portuguese focus on attacking this region seems inappropriate to me.”

Mozambique Governor Lieford agreed, saying, ”Colonel Clement has a valid point. East Africa has a large population, and if we focus our military strength mainly in the direction of South Africa, it might be disadvantageous for us. Therefore, we cannot put all our eggs in one basket.”

The existence of the Southern Border Province indeed greatly threatened Maputo’s security. However, if the Portuguese were to remove this thorn, they would have to neighbor the British. It might be better to let East Africa remain there! As the British themselves said, they had tied down East Africa’s focus. This meant that East Africa could not wholeheartedly deal with Portugal in the Southern Border Province.

This was a multiple-choice question. The problem was that both answers had pros and cons. However, in Lieford’s view, the threat from Britain was greater than from East Africa. In dealing with East Africa, Portugal could choose to balance with the British and French. But who could balance against the British? Rely on France? They might sell out Portugal to gain concessions from Britain in other regions, like West Africa.

Although the threat from East Africa to Mozambique was imminent, to be fair, East Africa had not acted excessively towards Mozambique over the years. On the contrary, the British had some past misconduct.

East Africa’s mistake was that its strength expanded too quickly, which alarmed the Portuguese. This time, the British and French assured that even if Portugal were defeated, they would not allow East Africa to swallow Mozambique and Angola. If East Africa acted persistently, then the two countries would join forces to pressure East Africa. So with this bottom line, it was the real reason why the Portuguese dared to risk everything. If they won, they would gain immensely in Mozambique and potentially connect Angola and Mozambique in a continuous territory, not much different from the former Brazilian colony. Even if they lost, they wouldn’t lose completely and could still maintain the colonies of Mozambique and Angola.

Seeing the plan unable to succeed, Johnson was very displeased and said, ”What great idea do you have then?”

Clement: ”I think that in both the north and south directions, we should adopt a defensive stance, especially in Maputo. Although it is very close to East Africa’s southern colony, it’s simply impossible for East Africa to conquer Maputo. I dare say Maputo’s defense is among the best in Africa. Without heavy weapons and a large amount of military force, taking this place is virtually impossible.”

It wasn’t that Clement boasted about the Portuguese, but rather objectively speaking, Maputo was indeed the hardest fortress to breach in Sub-Saharan Africa. In Sub-Saharan Africa, perhaps only the century-old city of Cape Town could compete with Maputo.

”What if East Africa attacks from the sea? East Africa’s naval strength is formidable. They almost bought an entire naval fleet from the Austrians.”

”This is where the navies of our two countries need to cooperate. No matter how strong East Africa’s navy is, can it be stronger than our two countries combined? We should first issue a military ultimatum that forbids any naval force in the East Indian Ocean region from intervening in this war.”

This essentially means tying one of East Africa’s hands to fight Portugal. However, if Britain and France voiced out, Ernst would have to admit it truly held weight. East Africa’s navy could not withstand the combined efforts of the world’s first and second naval powers.

Clement continued, ”Our attack emphasis should be placed on the central region, attacking East Africa’s hinterland. This is Mozambique’s weak point, and in other words, East Africa’s weak point. We should defend in the north and south to draw East Africa’s main forces, then quickly sever the connection between the northern and southern parts of the East African Kingdom. Angola and Mozambique would converge in East Africa’s central region, turning the southern part of East Africa into an enclave, thus greatly reducing East Africa’s threat.”

If Clement’s plan succeeded, East Africa would lose the middle area mainly consisting of Zimbabwe and Zambia. Once the connection with the north was severed, South Africa and Southwest Africa would become lambs to the slaughter. East Africa might indeed revert to its state ten years ago.

However, this was just an ideal scenario. The true military strength of East Africa was underestimated by the British, French, and Portuguese. They also ignored the existence of a strategic weapon in East Africa. Why did France lose the last Franco-Prussian War? It cannot be separated from Prussia’s railway construction. Yet the French once again overlooked this problem. East Africa had a massive artery in the interior, always capable of supporting weak spots on the battlefield through the Central Railway.