African Entrepreneurship Record

Chapter 405: Chapter 82: Strategic Security

The Fite River is a tributary on the right bank of the Fall River, a northern tributary of the Orange River in South Africa. The confluence of the lower reaches forms the Broekhoff Dam in the previous South Africa, while the upper reaches are home to an important city in the Transvaal—Warm Castle, which also serves as the boundary river between the Transvaal Republic and the Orange Free State.

Warm Castle is situated on the plain in the middle of the Fite River (the upper reaches of the Fite River form a Y-shape). It was one of the Boer Republics established by the old Pillotolius and was incorporated into the Transvaal Republic in 1852 along with other Boer colonies including Liedenburg Republic, making it the southernmost city of the Transvaal Republic.

A few days ago, East Africa’s 513th Division occupied this place. After the loss of Pretoria, the command system of the Transvaal Republic was completely out of control, which allowed East Africa to occupy the Transvaal Republic with ease.

”After taking Warm Castle, the area north of the Fite River is completely under our East African control, while the area south of the Fite River belongs to the Orange Free State. According to the orders of the Crown Prince, after my division occupied Warm Castle, it would control the line along the north bank of the Fite River, and unless the Orange Free State provokes on its own initiative, East African troops will not fight across the Fite River again,” said 513th Division commander Kerry Rhodes, pointing to the map in front of his subordinates.

After occupying Warm Castle, East Africa’s military mission against the Transvaal Republic was essentially completed, or rather, Ernst’s strategic intention was preliminarily achieved. The initial purpose of attacking the Transvaal Republic was to let the gold mines on both sides of the Fall River main stream spoil in the ground. After East Africa took control of the Fite River, 99% of the gold mine distribution areas fell into East African hands. As long as East Africa prohibits the development of the land between north of the Fite River and south of Pretoria, these gold mines will not be discovered, including Johannesburg from the past, which would not appear.

The reason for prohibiting development in this area is also ready-made. Because it lies deep within the South African plateau and Lesotho blocks Indian Ocean moisture, it is very arid, with poor soil and a fragile ecological environment.

East Africa can readily use ecological protection as an excuse to prohibit any individual or force from developing this area. Ernst plans to establish a natural ecological reserve similar to the Galen Seti Grassland here.

As for the Orange Free State across the river, East Africa is not very interested. On one hand, the East African Kingdom declared war by using the Transvaal Republic’s support for the Debelle people’s rebellion as an excuse, but the Transvaal Republic and the Orange Free State are two countries, so there’s no excuse to go to war with the Orange Free State.

Although the Orange Free State and the Transvaal Republic are like brothers, their interests are not completely aligned. Previously, the young Pillotolius attempted to promote the merger of the two countries, only to be rejected by the Orange Free State.

Ernst believes there is potential to win over the Orange Free State. Ernst has no inherent hostility toward the Boer nations; it is simply that there are conflicts in interests and national security with the Transvaal Republic.

On the other hand, the East African Kingdom needs the Orange Free State to act as a buffer zone between East Africa and British Cape Town territory. Because of the discovery and development of the Kimberley diamond mine, the British have tangible interests in the Orange Free State. The British cannot allow East Africa to annex the Orange Free State.

Conversely, Ernst will never allow the Transvaal Republic to continue to exist, as its existence is a great future threat. In the past, the discovery of the Land Gold Mine and other gold mines led to an unprecedented enthusiasm for British expansion into South Africa.

And the increased military presence and colonial efforts by the British in South Africa formed the South Africa colony of the past, with South Africa becoming the most populous white colony south of the Sahara. Just the Boers alone could reach a scale of six to seven hundred thousand. Including British, Irish, Indian... the number of white people in South Africa could easily exceed a million, which would pose a significant threat to East Africa’s national security.

After East Africa occupies the Transvaal Republic, in South Africa, besides the strategic position of Cape Town, the only remaining interest is the diamond mines in Orange. However, diamonds are not lacking in East Africa’s homeland, potentially even holding the world’s largest reserves.

Relying solely on diamond mines, the Orange Free State, as a landlocked country, cannot achieve industrialization. Moreover, the Orange Free State is water-scarce, and its future development potential is locked, potentially even less than that of Mongolia in the past.

With the advancement of East African Kingdom policies, a large number of Boers from the Transvaal Republic have proactively migrated to the Orange Free State, significantly strengthening the Boer presence within the Orange Free State.

According to the population growth rate of the two Boer Republics in the past, the Orange Free State’s population can easily exceed four hundred thousand, allowing the Orange Free State to be fully developed and potentially becoming a decent agricultural nation, unlike the two Boer Republics of the past, which were weak ones.

This way, the scale of the Orange Free State can be comparable to some small European countries, preventing it from being easily annexed by the British.

Though due to East Africa’s invasion of the Transvaal Republic, it can be determined that currently, the Orange Free State wouldn’t harbor good intentions toward East Africa and might even directly align with the British.

However, Ernst hopes Boers will be on superficially good terms with the British, as they were in the past, leading to eventual conflict, which is unavoidable. After all, the only valuable asset in Orange, the diamond mine, is in British hands. Unless the British, like East Africa did with the Transvaal Republic’s Boers, expel the Boers from the Orange Free State, which is something the British cannot accomplish.

Ultimately, East Africa annexing the Transvaal Republic ensures its strategic security, as with the gold mining area falling into East African hands, the British cannot, as they did in the past, implement the 2C plan. Aside from lacking attraction in terms of interest, even with the annexation of the Orange Free State, the South African colony cannot compete with the East African Kingdom in terms of strength. In the past, the economic center of South Africa was in the northeast, which is now East African territory.

Not just the 2C plan, even the French 2S plan is utterly impossible to achieve. For the colonial powers to partition Africa, they must first topple the East African Kingdom, which has firmly established itself in Africa.

And dealing with a centralized newly emerging state like the East African Kingdom cannot be completed with just the Anglo-French forces alone, unless they dare shift their focus from European countries to the East African Kingdom.

The East African Kingdom isn’t passive either; it can similarly align with the German second-tier powers (the Austro-German) to balance the Anglo-French powers, merely letting the Heixinggen royal family cede more benefits.

Moreover, given the relationship between the Anglo-French powers, unless it’s a world war, they’re fundamentally unlikely to cooperate even in a single endeavor; in fact, their relationship in Africa might be dire.

The existence of the East African Kingdom means there is hardly any blue ocean left to explore between East Africa and South Africa. Currently, the only remaining large territory in Africa, unclaimed, with favorable conditions, is West Africa.

As long as the East African Kingdom develops steadily and robustly, after 1880, countries will have no choice but to engage intensely in West Africa. The competitive pressure in West Africa will be unprecedentedly intense. Incidentally, both the British and French currently have colonies in West Africa, so invading West Africa would seem both logical, and it could be foreseen that, in the future, other regions, South America, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and so on, will also face even more intense colonial storms.